Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2870…70d0 other 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$141 (-3%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%61W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$91
politics 28% −$13
sports 22% −$63
crypto 6% +$2
world 4% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.4% -9.9% 9% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 142 -1.7% -11.0% 18% 0% -14.5%
all 232 -1.5% -10.9% 26% 0% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -13.2%
10% -19.4% 0% -21.5%
15% -27.2% 0% -29.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses61 / 171
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 233
History coverage138d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $17 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 28 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 20 $7 $0 -3%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 19 $30 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9AM ET May 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $6 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 16 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8PM ET May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $8 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7AM ET May 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amiens SC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $8 −$7 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10PM ET May 08 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12AM ET May 07 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8PM ET May 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will there be a Zeus kill in the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 playoffs Apr 29 $9 −$7 -77%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Apr 29 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 2h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 5h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 6h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 6h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 6h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 19d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 19d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 19d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 19d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 19d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $6 19d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $6 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 27d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 27d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 27d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $7 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 28d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $6 28d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $6 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 28d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 28d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.00 (match) · 975 history records