Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x286c…f34e
sports · 122 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$559 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$572 · open −$346
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$0
Realized−$572
Unrealized−$346
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses35 / 85
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage22d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 2 History 120 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$114
14 days+$72
30 days−$572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 55¢ $271 $0 −$270 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $209 +$114 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -10%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $9 −$4 -40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $7 −$2 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $26 −$6 -22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $15 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13 −$1 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $7 $0 -7%
Córdoba CF vs. SD Huesca: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $6 +$5 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $21 −$11 -54%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $11 +$8 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $11 +$12 +113%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 2.5 May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty May 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-6.5) May 30 $85 −$85 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) May 30 $64 −$64 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 30 $79 −$79 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $55 −$14 -24%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Strasbourg vs. Paris Basketball May 28 $20 +$44 +225%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 May 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% −$431
other 28% −$340
crypto 10% −$132
world 3% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $1 56m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $6 57m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $1 57m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $2 57m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $1 57m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 57m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $4 57m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $4 58m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $1 58m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $3 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $5 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $2 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +54.6% +39.8% 100% 100% +39.8%
≤30d 120 -37.4% -43.3% 29% 29% -33.7%
≤90d 120 -37.4% -43.3% 29% 29% -33.7%
all 120 -37.4% -43.3% 29% 29% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.3% 29% -33.7%
10% ← realistic here -48.7% 29% -40.0%
15% -53.7% 25% -45.8%
20% -58.2% 22% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.35 (match) · 1074 history records