Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x2868…9b6b
weather · 39 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$939 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$816 · open +$69
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$657
Realized−$816
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Open positions5
Markets (closed)34 / 39
History coverage5d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 5 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days−$816
14 days−$816
30 days−$816
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 54¢ $179 $263 +$84 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? No 54¢ 54¢ $194 $193 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 81¢ 100¢ $76 $93 +$17 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? No 95¢ 98¢ $76 $79 +$2 (+3%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 30¢ $62 $30 −$32 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 11? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 11? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? No 64¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? No 81¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $105 +$66 +62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $196 +$105 +54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $114 +$24 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $154 −$151 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 −$21 -78%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $109 +$64 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$34 +127%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $115 −$84 -72%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $297 −$4 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$9 -42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$6 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $100 −$98 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $39 −$38 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $159 −$155 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $88 +$12 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $54 −$41 -76%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $17 +$6 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $14 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $58 −$57 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 10 $65 −$64 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $92 −$89 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $6 +$7 +112%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $193 −$189 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% −$714
other 2% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 2m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 26m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 44¢ $44 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 52¢ $52 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $61 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $77 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $38 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $169 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 65¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 65¢ $17 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+56.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +73.1% +56.6% 32% 29% -48.2%
≤30d 34 +73.1% +56.6% 32% 29% -48.2%
≤90d 34 +73.1% +56.6% 32% 29% -48.2%
all 34 +73.1% +56.6% 32% 29% -48.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +56.6% 29% -48.2%
10% ← realistic here +41.6% 24% -53.1%
15% +27.9% 21% -57.7%
20% +15.4% 21% -61.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.87 · official $656.87 (match) · 273 history records