Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2865…3d4d crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-9%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate51%31W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day78.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$23
sports 18% −$15
other 10% −$8
world 7% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -14.4% -22.5% 51% 30% -20.0%
≤30d 61 -14.4% -22.5% 51% 30% -20.0%
≤90d 61 -14.4% -22.5% 51% 30% -20.0%
all 61 -14.4% -22.5% 51% 30% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 30% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 20% -27.7%
15% -36.7% 11% -34.6%
20% -42.9% 10% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses31 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 65
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day78.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$9 -69%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +245%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$4 +123%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$2 -68%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$11 -73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -61%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 −$1 -62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -15%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $8 −$6 -76%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$9 -76%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 58¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 57¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $10 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $3 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 6h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 24¢ $7 26h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 26h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 24¢ $3 26h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $1 28h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $3 29h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 29h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 81¢ $7 30h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 30h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 64¢ $5 30h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.93 · official $7.93 · 374 history records