Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
28 0x2864…c074 crypto 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$68 (+13%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%63W / 84L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$73
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$52
crypto 31% −$7
sports 15% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -10.8% -19.3% 44% 43% +4.8%
≤30d 147 -12.6% -20.9% 43% 42% +3.0%
≤90d 147 -12.6% -20.9% 43% 42% +3.0%
all 147 -12.6% -20.9% 43% 42% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 42% +3.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 41% -6.8%
15% -35.4% 39% -15.8%
20% -41.7% 35% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses63 / 84
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)147 / 150
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$4 +40%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +105%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 +$18 +67%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 1h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $12 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 18h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $20 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 30h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $27 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.25 · official $60.26 (match) · 256 history records