Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:28:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x2864…bed0 crypto 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate23%15W / 50L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 44% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 44 +8.0% -2.3% 23% 7% -9.5%
all 65 +7.0% -3.2% 23% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 6% -9.5%
10% -12.5% 6% -18.2%
15% -20.9% 6% -26.1%
20% -28.7% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×10.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses15 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage116d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $127 $127 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $337 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $337 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $336 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $337 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? May 31 $337 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $336 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $336 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $336 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $336 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $336 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $336 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $336 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $336 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $336 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $336 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? May 08 $337 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 05 $338 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $338 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 22? Apr 22 $338 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 19? Apr 19 $338 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $338 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 15? Apr 15 $338 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on April 14? Apr 15 $338 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $338 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $336 $0 -0%
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Apr Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $334 $0 -0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $319 $0 -0%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seat Apr 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $319 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $317 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11? Apr 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $340 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $340 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $340 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $341 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $341 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $341 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $341 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $341 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $341 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $341 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $341 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $341 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $341 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $337 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $337 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $337 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $337 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $337 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $336 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $336 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $337 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $337 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $337 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $337 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $336 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $336 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $336 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $336 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $336 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $336 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $336 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $336 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $336 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $336 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $336 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $336 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $336 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $336 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.98 · official $127.32 · 133 history records