Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2862…78dc sports 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$122 (+1%) realized +$760 · open −$638
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%66W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$394
7 days+$81
14 days+$392
30 days+$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$451
other 5% −$96
crypto 3% −$146
politics 0% +$20
world 0% −$50
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +32.9% +20.3% 42% 42% -4.8%
≤30d 28 +24.4% +12.5% 46% 46% +2.2%
≤90d 123 -5.8% -14.8% 38% 38% -10.8%
all 176 -10.0% -18.5% 38% 38% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 38% -10.3%
10% -26.3% 38% -18.9%
15% -33.4% 36% -26.7%
20% -40.0% 34% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$50 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized+$760
Unrealized−$638
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses66 / 110
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions5
Markets (closed)176 / 181
History coverage140d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 28¢ 0¢ $444 $1 −$443 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 22¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$194 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $229 −$225 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $70 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $132 −$130 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $127 +$153 +120%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $76 +$111 +145%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $254 +$321 +126%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$63 +124%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $21 +$179 +874%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 +$40 +197%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 +$21 +84%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$56 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $152 +$80 +53%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$63 +124%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $135 +$179 +132%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$23 +76%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $51 +$36 +71%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $116 −$114 -98%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 11 $151 −$148 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $100 +$51 +51%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 09 $30 +$35 +118%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoff Apr 09 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $50 +$43 +86%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Zizou Bergs Apr 08 $10 +$26 +258%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner Apr 08 $30 +$31 +102%
Mexico City: Nicolas Mejia vs Vladyslav Orlov Apr 08 $50 +$35 +69%
Campinas: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Facundo Acosta Apr 07 $34 −$34 -99%
Mexico City: Dan Martin vs Aidan Mayo Apr 07 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $100 −$18 -18%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 06 $207 −$203 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 06 $90 −$89 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Sta Apr 06 $190 −$186 -98%
Jiangsu Dragons vs. Beijing Royal Fighters Apr 06 $50 +$67 +134%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Apr 06 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner Apr 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 06 $50 +$48 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 06 $100 +$63 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 28¢ $249 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 1¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 9¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 26¢ $92 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 35¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 34¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $128 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $77 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 34¢ $51 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $51 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $26 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $51 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 18¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $51 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $9 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $26 35h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $51 35h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $15 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 28¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 20¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $280 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $187 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.83 · official $265.83 (match) · 330 history records