Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2861…10d2 world 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$2
other 9% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.3% -10.7% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 23% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 23% 0% -9.8%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage448d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $68 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Dec 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 6m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $8 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $26 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $30 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $34 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $17 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $21 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $29 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $29 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $29 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $21 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.44 · official $2.44 (match) · 79 history records