Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2860…d629 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$110 (-10%) realized −$107 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$167
other 27% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% -30.5%
≤30d 16 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% -30.5%
≤90d 16 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% -30.5%
all 16 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 50% -30.5%
10% -37.4% 38% -37.2%
15% -43.5% 6% -43.2%
20% -49.0% 0% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$41 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 90¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $96 +$26 +27%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $73 −$68 -93%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $49 −$10 -19%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $50 +$11 +21%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $50 +$12 +24%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $161 −$63 -39%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $94 −$44 -47%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $76 −$75 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $60 +$10 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $111 +$28 +25%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $40 +$20 +50%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $40 42m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 44m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $122 46m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $96 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over $5 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 64¢ $40 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $73 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 4h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $49 7h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $51 7h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $50 11h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 11h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 16¢ $18 25h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $4 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 28h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $86 28h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 28h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $80 29h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $45 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $76 29h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $43 30h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 30h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $76 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $82 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $40 33h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $60 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 69¢ $57 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.65 · official $116.65 (match) · 36 history records