Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x285f…718d sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$498 (+7%) realized +$498 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$558per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days+$545
14 days+$545
30 days+$545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$19
sports 39% +$557
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +8.0% -2.3% 70% 70% -1.9%
≤30d 10 +8.0% -2.3% 70% 70% -1.9%
≤90d 12 +10.2% -0.3% 75% 75% -1.7%
all 12 +10.2% -0.3% 75% 75% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 75% -1.7%
10% -9.9% 42% -11.1%
15% -18.6% 25% -19.7%
20% -26.6% 25% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$209 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$498
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage54d
Avg bet$558
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $2,241 +$456 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $532 −$376 -71%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $50 −$40 -81%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $90 +$60 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $446 +$54 +12%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 +$5 +94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,744 +$256 +15%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,110 +$293 +26%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie May 20 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $16 +$4 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,697 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,176 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $65 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 8¢ $156 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 26¢ $532 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records