Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:02:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x285e…f38c
crypto · 361 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$8,230 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,058 · open −$197
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$90
Realized−$11,058
Unrealized−$197
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses61 / 293
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)354 / 361
History coverage80d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 7 History 354 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$609
7 days−$2,916
14 days−$1,919
30 days−$2,925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? No 3¢ 4¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+28%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $50 $23 −$28 (-55%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? No 2¢ 2¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? No 1¢ 1¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? No 2¢ 0¢ $67 $2 −$65 (-97%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? No 3¢ 0¢ $79 $2 −$77 (-98%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? No 3¢ 0¢ $32 $1 −$32 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $138 −$138 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 11? Jun 11 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 11? Jun 11 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $190 −$190 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 10? Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $170 −$170 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 10? Jun 10 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 10? Jun 10 $182 −$182 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $53 +$51 +97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $90 +$44 +49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 9? Jun 09 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $190 −$190 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $184 −$184 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $230 +$453 +197%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8? Jun 09 $406 −$283 -70%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on June 8? Jun 09 $270 −$270 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? Jun 08 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 8? Jun 08 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 8? Jun 08 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 8? Jun 08 $266 −$266 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $204 −$204 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $364 −$364 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $97 −$97 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $452 +$366 +81%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $251 +$611 +243%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $153 +$499 +326%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $106 −$106 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% −$8,684
world 11% −$392
finance 10% −$2,264
other 4% +$154
economics 2% −$65
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $11 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $11 25m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? BUY No 1¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 3¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? BUY No 1¢ $9 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $11 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 2¢ $14 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 4¢ $30 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 4¢ $30 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $42 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY No 2¢ $30 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 6¢ $18 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 1¢ $11 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 1¢ $11 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 2¢ $11 47h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 2¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? BUY No 3¢ $35 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? BUY No 3¢ $27 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? BUY No 3¢ $21 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? BUY No 4¢ $32 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $32 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $21 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $42 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $43 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY No 3¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-54.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -69.4% -72.3% 11% 11% -51.4%
≤30d 202 -25.8% -32.9% 27% 25% -17.5%
≤90d 354 -49.5% -54.3% 17% 16% -32.1%
all 354 -49.5% -54.3% 17% 16% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.3% 16% -32.1%
10% -58.7% 15% -38.6%
15% -62.7% 14% -44.5%
20% -66.4% 13% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.80 · official $89.80 (match) · 1259 history records