Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x285a…fd1b crypto 120 markets active 116d ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (218 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$10,683 (+2845%) realized +$10,683 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%58W / 62L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day217.9pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$51
other 16% +$16
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (218 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+82.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 120 +101.3% +82.1% 48% 45% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover217.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +82.1% 45% +6.3%
10% ← realistic here +64.7% 40% -3.9%
15% +48.8% 36% -13.2%
20% +34.2% 31% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +101% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +174% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,683
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses58 / 62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage10d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day217.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in April 2026? Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets in April 2026? Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in March 2026? Mar 25 $0 +$1 +1632%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in March 2026? Mar 25 $3 +$4 +138%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 25 $1 +$1 +152%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets in March 2026? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in February? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $0 +$1 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? Mar 04 $0 +$1 +1546%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in March 2026? Mar 01 $0 $0 +121%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? Mar 01 $0 $0 +902%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Feb 28 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in March 2026? Feb 27 $0 $0 +98%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in March 2026? Feb 27 $1 +$2 +200%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Feb 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in March 2026? Feb 27 $0 $0 +136%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in February? Feb 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets in March 2026? Feb 27 $0 +$2 +4819%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in March 2026? Feb 27 $0 +$2 +3768%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on February 26? Feb 26 $4 +$2 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Feb 26 $3 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 2 Feb 26 $3 +$3 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 24? Feb 26 $2 $0 -10%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on February 25? Feb 26 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on February 2 Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 25 Feb 26 $4 −$2 -45%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 24? Feb 26 $4 $0 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on February 25 Feb 26 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 25? Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on February 24 Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 24 Feb 26 $6 −$2 -33%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 24 Feb 26 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on February 24? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 Feb 26 $4 −$2 -50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 24? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Feb 26 $0 +$6 +2251%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 Feb 26 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 0¢ $1 116d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 116d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 117d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 120d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 120d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 120d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 121d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 121d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3000 history records