Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
28 0x2859…26d7 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$16 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate62%40W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$16
14 days−$12
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$19
crypto 22% +$14
world 14% $0
sports 5% +$4
politics 2% −$15
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +74.2% +57.6% 54% 54% +1.2%
≤30d 65 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 43% -9.3%
≤90d 65 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 43% -9.3%
all 65 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 43% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 43% -9.3%
10% -12.5% 29% -18.0%
15% -21.0% 18% -25.9%
20% -28.7% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses40 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)65 / 72
History coverage23d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 50¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-37%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 48¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-29%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +246%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $21 +$11 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $22 +$6 +28%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +254%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$9 +86%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $30 +$8 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $43 −$23 -54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $16 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +148%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $21 +$10 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $90 +$7 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $1 $0 +48%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 -9%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +18%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +11%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 31 $13 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $12 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $10 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $12 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 2h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 22h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 24h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $30 28h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 32h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 32h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $2 3d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $29 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $19 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 3d
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 5d
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY Yes 69¢ $13 5d
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 7d
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 7d
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 7d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.54 · official $47.54 (match) · 137 history records