Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x2859…e9c4 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$90 (+11%) realized +$90 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%21W / 22L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$129
14 days+$126
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$23
other 31% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +28.1% +15.9% 62% 62% +14.3%
≤30d 24 +20.4% +9.0% 58% 58% +12.6%
≤90d 43 +4.4% -5.5% 49% 47% +1.1%
all 43 +4.4% -5.5% 49% 47% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 47% +1.1%
10% -14.6% 44% -8.5%
15% -22.8% 44% -17.4%
20% -30.4% 35% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage59d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $74 +$10 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 +$14 +234%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 +$38 +69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$41 +103%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +245%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$25 +88%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +234%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $53 +$26 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $19 +$11 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $13 −$8 -67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $24 +$23 +95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 +$7 +88%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $23 −$22 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $28 +$20 +72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $12 +$5 +42%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $32 −$13 -40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $17 −$17 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $20 −$18 -90%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 −$3 -51%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $19 +$15 +80%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $5 −$1 -12%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $13 −$6 -44%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $8 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 25 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $7 −$5 -71%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $6 +$6 +86%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $45 +$1 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 24 $10 +$17 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 56¢ $45 31m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 46¢ $39 42m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 47¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 36¢ $15 21h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team $3 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $56 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $55 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $20 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $16 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $28 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $21 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 61¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $32 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team $3 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $19 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 100¢ $47 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 28¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 59¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 28¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $8 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $28 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records