Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2859…517f crypto 461 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate81%373W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 301 -4.7% -13.8% 82% 79% -12.8%
≤30d 413 -3.9% -13.0% 82% 79% -11.9%
≤90d 461 -4.4% -13.5% 81% 77% -12.5%
all 461 -4.4% -13.5% 81% 77% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 77% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 11% -20.9%
15% -29.4% 3% -28.5%
20% -36.3% 1% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses373 / 88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)461 / 461
History coverage39d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 461 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 892 history records