Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:37:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x2858…0e19 crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,587 (+2%) realized +$1,613 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate66%101W / 52L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$991
other 4% +$87
sports 2% −$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -32.7% -39.1% 50% 50% -48.0%
≤30d 2 -32.7% -39.1% 50% 50% -48.0%
≤90d 153 -6.6% -15.5% 66% 39% -8.5%
all 153 -6.6% -15.5% 66% 39% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 39% -8.5%
10% -23.6% 25% -17.3%
15% -31.0% 18% -25.3%
20% -37.8% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$794) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$131 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$2,408
Realized+$1,613
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses101 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage62d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2,434 $2,408 −$26 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $56 +$19 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 26 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 24 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 24 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 24 $173 −$173 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 24 $340 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 24 $113 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 24 $154 +$93 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 24 $109 +$46 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 24 $202 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 23 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 23 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 23 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 21 $922 −$922 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 21 $1,892 −$47 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 21 $1,099 +$167 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 21 $783 +$149 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 21 $657 +$19 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 21 $764 +$142 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 21 $845 +$45 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 21 $100 +$91 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 21 $457 −$164 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 21 $565 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 21 $970 +$136 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 21 $742 −$286 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 21 $1,149 −$405 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 21 $300 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 21 $504 +$119 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 21 $467 −$467 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 21 $1,458 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 21 $630 +$143 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 21 $226 +$90 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 21 $1,062 −$1,062 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 21 $211 +$115 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 21 $1,043 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 21 $900 +$143 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 21 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 21 $366 −$366 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 21 $700 +$345 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 21 $297 +$99 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 21 $1,045 +$52 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 21 $75 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 21 $982 +$93 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2,465 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $77 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $75 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $57 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $60 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $50 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $60 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $16 54d
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Dino Prizmic 2¢ $5 54d
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Dino Prizmic 42¢ $5 54d
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Dino Prizmic 42¢ $10 54d
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Dino Prizmic 56¢ $30 54d
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Dino Prizmic 78¢ $20 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $119 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $100 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $70 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $20 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $143 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $340 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $13 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $106 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $100 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $154 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $109 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $102 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,408.28 · official $2,408.28 (match) · 411 history records