Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2855…6371 other 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized +$433 · open −$443
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$6,079now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,618
7 days+$338
14 days+$338
30 days+$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$255
crypto 20% −$467
sports 9% +$655
world 6% −$315
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.3% -13.4% 40% 40% -4.0%
≤30d 20 -4.3% -13.4% 40% 40% -4.0%
≤90d 20 -4.3% -13.4% 40% 40% -4.0%
all 24 -20.3% -27.9% 33% 33% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 33% -8.6%
10% -34.8% 33% -17.3%
15% -41.1% 33% -25.3%
20% -46.9% 29% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$322 vs −$157 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$6,079
Realized+$433
Unrealized−$443
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions42
Markets (closed)24 / 66
History coverage126d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2,050 $1,975 −$75 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $648 $1,125 +$477 (+74%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $600 $390 −$210 (-35%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $280 $294 +$14 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $170 $235 +$65 (+38%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $182 $176 −$6 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $180 $165 −$15 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $220 $165 −$55 (-25%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $190 $165 −$25 (-13%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $112 +$62 (+125%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $119 $86 −$33 (-28%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $52 $72 +$20 (+38%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $96 $68 −$28 (-29%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $65 −$45 (-41%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $51 $60 +$8 (+17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $56 $46 −$10 (-19%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $51 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $51 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $224 +$300 +134%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $244 +$267 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $123 +$377 +307%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $500 −$45 -9%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $285 −$280 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $225 −$220 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$513 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,414 +$707 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $367 −$360 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $183 +$278 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 +$126 +83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $223 −$220 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 12 $120 −$119 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 12 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2PM ET Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $284 15m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $67 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 1h
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $34 1h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $122 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $455 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $285 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $122 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $224 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $225 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $123 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $500 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,078.94 · official $6,052.14 (match) · 98 history records