Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
28 0x2854…927c sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$251 (-10%) realized −$205 · open −$43
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$254
7 days−$179
14 days−$179
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$133
other 16% −$71
crypto 11% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.9% -19.4% 47% 47% -20.3%
≤30d 39 -1.7% -11.0% 56% 56% -17.9%
≤90d 39 -1.7% -11.0% 56% 56% -17.9%
all 39 -1.7% -11.0% 56% 56% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 56% -17.9%
10% -19.5% 54% -25.8%
15% -27.3% 51% -33.0%
20% -34.4% 31% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$49 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage23d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Donyell Malen: 3+ shots Yes 57¢ 50¢ $98 $85 −$14 (-14%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 22¢ $48 $19 −$29 (-60%)
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Fenerbahce 61¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Draw at halftime? Yes 37¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 40¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 44¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Corners Over 74¢ $184 $0 −$184 (-100%)
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff Alexander Bublik 84¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ $123 $0 −$123 (-100%)
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5 Over 26¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? Yes 56¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 34¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 No 48¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 +$42 +41%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $48 +$58 +121%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $42 −$41 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $255 −$16 -6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $124 −$123 -99%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $82 −$81 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 12 $185 −$184 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $101 +$88 +87%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $73 +$76 +105%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $92 +$57 +62%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $44 +$36 +83%
Set 1 Winner: Estevez vs Soto Jun 10 $3 +$2 +46%
Lokomotiv Kuban vs. BC Zenit Jun 09 $32 +$15 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 May 25 $46 −$45 -98%
Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 25 $101 +$41 +41%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $43 −$42 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 25 $26 +$18 +71%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score May 24 $20 +$16 +79%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $22 +$14 +63%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 May 24 $29 +$24 +82%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Draw at halftime? May 24 $22 −$22 -98%
Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $37 +$17 +46%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 24 $30 +$9 +31%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $19 −$19 -98%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 3.5 May 24 $27 +$10 +38%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5 May 24 $11 +$16 +146%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 24 $44 +$17 +40%
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 May 23 $20 +$23 +114%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $19 −$19 -99%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 23 $42 +$22 +53%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $29 +$12 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $48 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $101 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $106 3h
Donyell Malen: 3+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $99 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $48 8h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $42 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $51 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $240 26h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $124 30h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 61¢ $82 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $117 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $98 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 39h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 74¢ $185 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $101 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $73 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 61¢ $92 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $44 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $255 4d
Set 1 Winner: Estevez vs Soto BUY Estevez 68¢ $3 5d
Lokomotiv Kuban vs. BC Zenit BUY Lokomotiv Kuban 68¢ $32 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff BUY Alexander Bublik 84¢ $97 19d
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 BUY No 48¢ $46 20d
Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $142 20d
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $43 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.16 · official $152.16 (match) · 71 history records