Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2851…d63c sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day70.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$19
sports 15% +$4
crypto 9% −$5
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 10% -14.4%
≤30d 10 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 10% -14.4%
≤90d 10 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 10% -14.4%
all 10 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 10% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 10% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 0% -22.6%
15% -29.1% 0% -30.1%
20% -36.1% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day70.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Up 17¢ 10¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $29 +$4 +13%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $144 −$8 -6%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $83 −$10 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -8%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $16 +$1 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 37¢ $7 48m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 37¢ $2 48m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 37¢ $1 51m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 36¢ $7 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 80¢ $102 56m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 26¢ $1 56m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 71¢ $72 56m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No $1 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 13¢ $1 57m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 31¢ $6 57m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 31¢ $2 57m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $22 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 13¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 13¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 14¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 14¢ $2 57m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $22 58m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $2 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $22 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $22 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $22 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $22 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 82¢ $22 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 82¢ $22 58m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $0 58m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 25¢ $1 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 12¢ $1 58m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 31¢ $4 59m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 32¢ $2 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.42 · official $6.42 (match) · 70 history records