Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:36:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2851…6b8c weather 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (208 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,451 (+13%) realized +$4,247 · open +$204
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%71W / 211L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day207.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$3,681
other 1% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (208 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -52.7% -57.2% 17% 15% -33.3%
≤30d 282 -35.9% -42.0% 25% 21% -17.4%
≤90d 282 -35.9% -42.0% 25% 21% -17.4%
all 282 -35.9% -42.0% 25% 21% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover207.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.0% 21% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -47.5% 16% -25.3%
15% -52.6% 12% -32.5%
20% -57.3% 8% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$56 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,444
Realized+$4,247
Unrealized+$204
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses71 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)282 / 184
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$187
Trades / day207.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? Yes 76¢ 98¢ $379 $491 +$112 (+30%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 69¢ 88¢ $332 $426 +$94 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 90¢ 98¢ $175 $189 +$15 (+8%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $78 $91 +$13 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Yes 88¢ 78¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Yes 23¢ 33¢ $53 $75 +$22 (+41%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $55 $38 −$18 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $14 $25 +$11 (+79%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+71%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$25 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on April 30? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 31? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on May 1? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 18? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 2? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 29? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 5? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 31? Jun 17 $24 −$15 -63%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 30? Jun 17 $63 −$23 -37%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 29? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 17? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 18? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15? Jun 17 $263 −$290 -110%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 9? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 5? Jun 17 $170 −$180 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17? Jun 17 $206 −$68 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 14? Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 14? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 28? Jun 17 $249 −$249 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26? Jun 17 $99 −$114 -114%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 24? Jun 17 $2 −$95 -4404%
Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in May? Jun 17 $8 −$10 -122%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 30? Jun 17 $4 −$5 -124%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on May 1? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 22°C on April 29? Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Cristina Bucsa Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 3? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5? Jun 17 $11 +$11 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on May 2? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7? Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on April 30? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May? Jun 17 $249 −$218 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on May 15? Jun 17 $20 −$26 -130%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 20°C on April 29? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 15? Jun 17 $92 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 12? Jun 17 $11 −$15 -139%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? Jun 17 $304 −$304 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 2? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 230-240mm of precipitation in May? Jun 17 $3 +$34 +1110%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 9? Jun 17 $137 −$137 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 31? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 170-180mm of precipitation in April? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 5? Jun 17 $52 −$54 -104%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 6? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or higher on April 3 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 5? Jun 17 $15 −$91 -611%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 10m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $94 10m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 10m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 11m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 12m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $25 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $30 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $25 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $4 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $9 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 19m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $18 19m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $24 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,443.95 · official $1,443.95 (match) · 3500 history records