Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
28 0x2850…1923 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$29 (-8%) realized −$49 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$3
crypto 17% +$81
sports 5% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +97.4% +78.6% 100% 100% +80.4%
≤30d 6 +31.6% +19.1% 67% 67% +22.9%
≤90d 6 +31.6% +19.1% 67% 67% +22.9%
all 6 +31.6% +19.1% 67% 67% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.1% 67% +22.9%
10% +7.7% 33% +11.2%
15% -2.7% 17% +0.4%
20% -12.3% 17% -9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$20 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage15d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 31¢ $20 $39 +$19 (+94%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $22 +$73 +333%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$6 +27%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $21 +$4 +17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.66 · official $259.66 (match) · 30 history records