Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:58:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x284f…1b51 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,473 (-27%) realized −$1,242 · open −$231
Gross ROI / mkt +89% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip
Net edge+71%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$1,580now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$22
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$743
sports 8% −$186
crypto 4% −$63
politics 0% −$5
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+71.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +24.8% +12.9% 20% 20% +18.5%
≤30d 11 +168.5% +143.0% 27% 27% -23.8%
≤90d 16 +112.6% +92.4% 25% 25% -53.1%
all 18 +89.0% +71.0% 22% 22% -53.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +71.0% 22% -53.3%
10% +54.6% 22% -57.7%
15% +39.7% 22% -61.8%
20% +26.0% 22% -65.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +89% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +228% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$59 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$1,580
Realized−$1,242
Unrealized−$231
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)18 / 28
History coverage144d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $916 $914 −$2 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $481 $317 −$165 (-34%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $310 $270 −$40 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $54 $35 −$19 (-35%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $36 $34 −$2 (-4%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $5 +$22 +429%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 $0 -7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a Jun 21 $1 +$19 +1848%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $5 +$10 +192%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $103 −$10 -10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 19 $67 −$2 -2%
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026? May 19 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 13 $360 −$199 -55%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $902 −$541 -60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Feb 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $126 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $937 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $37 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $162 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $651 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $38 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $73 42h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $78 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $82 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 32¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 14¢ $5 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 29¢ $5 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 18¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $3 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No $5 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL No $0 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY $2 7d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a BUY $1 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,580.29 · official $1,580.29 (match) · 166 history records