Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x284c…eaf0
sports · 1591 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$39 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$40 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1588 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1588 / 1591
History coverage90d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 3 History 1588 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs TeamDk 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? No 99¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill? No 99¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jonathan David: 1+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Park vs. Oh: Total Games O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Game Handicap: Polcanova (-1.5) vs Sato (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 190 ( Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals + assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Ismaël Koné: 1+ goals + assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Johnson vs. O'connell: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-9.5) vs 9z (+9.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC 2 - 2 Drogheda United FC? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Ermin Mahmić: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Dundalk FC leading at halftime? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Vagramov vs. Miroshnichenko: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Heretics (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: FathUnionSport 3 - 0 Maghreb AS de Fès? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs GenOne (+6.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Haita vs. Andreescu: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Game 3: Any Player Quadra Kill? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-6.5) vs G2 Ares (+6.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Arends/Pel vs Diallo/Hurkacz Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Flores vs. Mosejczuk: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-3.5) vs G2 Ares (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Mettraux vs. Stankovic: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Mettraux vs. Stankovic: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bielinska vs. Mi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Cuenin vs. Mashtakov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Shimizu vs. Aikawa: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Lukáš Provod: 3+ shots on target Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Dong Ju Kim vs. Matthew Dellavedova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Patrik Schick: 2+ shots on target Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Sornlaksup vs. Chanta: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum ETF Flows on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Cho Guesung: 2+ Goals Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Hwang Heechan: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Josh Naylor: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Jake Mangum: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Sam Huff: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Randy Arozarena: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Teboho Mokoena: 2+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Seiya Suzuki: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Cole Carrigg: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Sterlin Thompson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% +$14
other 48% +$16
weather 1% +$6
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ shots BUY No 98¢ $5 52m
Jonathan David: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 58m
Game Handicap: Polcanova (-1.5) vs Sato (+1.5) BUY Sato 99¢ $5 1h
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Park vs. Oh: Total Games O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 1h
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O BUY TeamDk 100¢ $5 1h
Ismaël Koné: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Johnson vs. O'connell: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 2h
Ermin Mahmić: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC 2 - 2 Drogheda United FC? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Dundalk FC leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 190 ( BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Vagramov vs. Miroshnichenko: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) BUY 9z 100¢ $5 4h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-9.5) vs 9z (+9.5) BUY 9z 99¢ $5 4h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 4h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 99¢ $5 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Heretics (+3.5) BUY Team Vitality 100¢ $5 6h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: FathUnionSport 3 - 0 Maghreb AS de Fès? BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Will Esteban Ocon achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs GenOne (+6.5) BUY GenOne 100¢ $5 8h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 9h
Haita vs. Andreescu: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 10h
Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) BUY FURIA 100¢ $5 12h
Set 1 Winner: Arends/Pel vs Diallo/Hurkacz BUY Arends/Pel 100¢ $4 13h
Flores vs. Mosejczuk: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 764 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 1588 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 1% -9.1%
all 1588 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 1% -9.1%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.00 · official $14.00 (match) · 3500 history records