Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
28 0x2849…3d49 sports 540 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$39,321 (+18%) realized +$39,321 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate65%349W / 191L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Fees−$4,053est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$15,817
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +108.4% +88.5% 59% 41% -4.7%
≤30d 90 +26.8% +14.7% 57% 38% -4.3%
≤90d 540 +15.9% +4.8% 65% 43% -2.7%
all 540 +15.9% +4.8% 65% 43% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 43% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -5.2% 20% -12.0%
15% -14.4% 9% -20.5%
20% -22.8% 4% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$32 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.6 per $1 lost it wins $3.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39,321
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses349 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$4,053
Open positions0
Markets (closed)540 / 540
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$413
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 540 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $17 −$13 -79%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $114 +$7 +6%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 27 $226 +$27 +12%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $44 −$5 -12%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $196 −$111 -57%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $766 +$172 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $508 +$52 +10%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $271 +$29 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $632 −$67 -11%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $111 +$49 +44%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $368 +$102 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $587 −$6 -1%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $4,032 −$609 -15%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $303 +$34 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $617 +$134 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $1,054 −$54 -5%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $23 +$1 +6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $58 −$8 -14%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $9 +$2 +25%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $363 +$67 +18%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $8 $0 -6%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $135 +$33 +24%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $378 +$21 +6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $496 +$35 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $249 +$101 +41%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $376 −$24 -6%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $107 +$167 +156%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $87 −$3 -3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $511 −$11 -2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $239 +$3 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $906 −$17 -2%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $646 −$44 -7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $2,232 +$37 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $239 −$22 -9%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $551 +$18 +3%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $229 −$12 -5%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $241 +$6 +2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $756 +$346 +46%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $393 +$30 +8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $134 +$34 +25%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $246 +$29 +12%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $572 +$83 +15%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $460 +$92 +20%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $201 −$3 -2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $817 +$50 +6%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $3,122 +$5 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $440 −$3 -1%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $186 +$64 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, SELL Michal Oleksiejczuk $0 33m
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, SELL Michal Oleksiejczuk $3 33m
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 13¢ $17 33m
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Eric Nolan 28¢ $119 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Eric Nolan 28¢ $1 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Eric Nolan 26¢ $114 1h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy SELL Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 99¢ $253 1h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 88¢ $226 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Andrey Pulyaev 29¢ $6 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Andrey Pulyaev 32¢ $0 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Andrey Pulyaev 32¢ $32 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 35¢ $44 1h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 11¢ $2 2h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 11¢ $14 2h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 11¢ $3 2h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 11¢ $10 2h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 11¢ $19 2h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 11¢ $25 2h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 11¢ $11 2h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 25¢ $196 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Jean Matsumoto 42¢ $107 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 43¢ $114 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Jean Matsumoto 36¢ $0 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Jean Matsumoto 24¢ $117 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 19¢ $95 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Bekzat Almakhan 72¢ $714 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 55¢ $557 3h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig SELL Tahir Abdullayev 56¢ $545 3h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig SELL Tahir Abdullayev 56¢ $5 3h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig SELL Tahir Abdullayev 56¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records