Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2845…b637 weather 550 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (248 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,303 (+73%) realized +$1,303 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%118W / 411L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day248.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days+$63
14 days+$270
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$238
other 3% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (248 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 -12.5% -20.8% 21% 19% -2.9%
≤30d 529 -10.9% -19.3% 22% 20% +4.6%
≤90d 529 -10.9% -19.3% 22% 20% +4.6%
all 529 -10.9% -19.3% 22% 20% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover248.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 20% +4.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 18% -5.4%
15% -34.1% 16% -14.6%
20% -40.6% 14% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$1,303
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses118 / 411
Open positions22
Markets (closed)529 / 550
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day248.0
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 529 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 88¢ $3 $18 +$15 (+525%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 15¢ $4 $14 +$10 (+264%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 28¢ 31¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+133%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+157%)
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? No 74¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -42%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $17 +$27 +161%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 +$5 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$6 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$3 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +365%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 +$2 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 +$8 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $0 $0 -78%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 16 $1 $0 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 18m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $9 24m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 55¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.89 · official $50.10 (match) · 3500 history records