Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
28 0x2843…0ac5 sports 792 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,076 (-2%) realized −$1,470 · open −$1,606
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%420W / 363L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1,277est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,017now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$367
7 days−$4,198
14 days−$4,815
30 days−$1,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$2,658
other 27% −$109
world 13% −$1,776
politics 2% −$860
crypto 1% −$2,103
finance 1% −$1,207
culture 1% −$1,090
tech 0% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +40.8% +27.4% 43% 43% -29.8%
≤30d 469 -0.8% -10.3% 51% 51% -10.3%
≤90d 783 -1.7% -11.0% 54% 52% -11.0%
all 783 -1.7% -11.0% 54% 52% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 52% -11.0%
10% -19.5% 49% -19.5%
15% -27.3% 40% -27.3%
20% -34.4% 31% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$196 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$1,017
Realized−$1,470
Unrealized−$1,606
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses420 / 363
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,277
Open positions9
Markets (closed)783 / 792
History coverage184d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 783 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $500 $487 −$13 (-3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1,437 $230 −$1,207 (-84%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $200 $42 −$158 (-79%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 36¢ 6¢ $236 $37 −$198 (-84%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 284 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $508 +$556 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $204 +$565 +276%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 +$200 +40%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $308 −$300 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $509 +$711 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $152 −$148 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $256 −$250 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,239 +$592 +48%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $361 −$359 -100%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,386 +$258 +11%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$510 +250%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$782 +1521%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $202 +$97 +48%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $203 +$214 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $202 +$66 +33%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $654 +$610 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $8 +$29 +361%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3,000 −$2,732 -91%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3,600 −$2,576 -72%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$451 +221%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $128 −$125 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $262 +$143 +55%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $263 +$90 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$565 +276%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $203 +$263 +129%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $127 −$126 -100%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 13 $254 +$74 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $768 −$757 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$323 +158%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 10 $154 −$10 -7%
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Jun 10 $153 −$14 -9%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $311 −$307 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $512 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $103 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 16¢ $103 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $205 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $205 10h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $103 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $103 25h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $308 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $510 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $152 30h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 32h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 32h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 32h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $205 32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $256 32h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 85¢ $361 2d
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 60¢ $202 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $103 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,239 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $205 3d
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 67¢ $202 3d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 48¢ $203 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,167 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,016.56 · official $1,016.56 (match) · 1447 history records