Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
28 0x2843…b3d2 world 400 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,452 (-7%) realized −$3,780 · open −$672
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%204W / 151L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day38.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4,528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$2,337
other 16% +$587
politics 5% −$117
finance 5% −$512
tech 3% −$221
sports 3% −$158
crypto 2% +$64
economics 0% −$86
culture 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +6.2% -3.9% 55% 45% -20.8%
≤30d 163 +15.7% +4.7% 62% 56% -11.2%
≤90d 355 +7.1% -3.1% 57% 52% -5.3%
all 355 +7.1% -3.1% 57% 52% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 52% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 41% -14.4%
15% -20.8% 30% -22.7%
20% -28.6% 21% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$79 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$4,528
Realized−$3,780
Unrealized−$672
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses204 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions50
Markets (closed)355 / 400
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$156
Trades / day38.7
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $330 $599 +$270 (+82%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $422 $330 −$92 (-22%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 60¢ 66¢ $288 $314 +$26 (+9%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 76¢ 80¢ $271 $284 +$13 (+5%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 98¢ $132 $196 +$64 (+49%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 70¢ 48¢ $280 $191 −$89 (-32%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 80¢ $96 $161 +$65 (+68%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 71¢ 50¢ $214 $153 −$61 (-29%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 64¢ 99¢ $96 $148 +$52 (+54%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $148 $143 −$6 (-4%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $83 $140 +$57 (+69%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 44¢ 26¢ $213 $127 −$86 (-40%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $127 $110 −$17 (-13%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 74¢ 53¢ $148 $106 −$42 (-28%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 30¢ $212 $103 −$109 (-51%)
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? No 70¢ 98¢ $70 $98 +$28 (+40%)
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $89 $88 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? No 72¢ 78¢ $81 $88 +$7 (+8%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? No 42¢ 86¢ $42 $86 +$45 (+108%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 65¢ 80¢ $65 $80 +$15 (+22%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 75¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 57¢ 33¢ $124 $71 −$53 (-43%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 64¢ $78 $68 −$10 (-13%)
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? No 75¢ 90¢ $55 $67 +$12 (+21%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 +$62 +165%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $598 −$223 -37%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $347 −$60 -17%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $778 −$81 -10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 21 $253 +$570 +225%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $1,297 −$571 -44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $69 −$68 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $22 +$8 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $14 +$47 +327%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $22 +$8 +37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$41 +70%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $668 −$589 -88%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $337 −$303 -90%
Will Türkiye be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 20 $31 +$9 +27%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $69 +$11 +16%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $92 +$8 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $166 +$34 +20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$40 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 +$38 +62%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 19 $227 −$199 -87%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $43 −$23 -54%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 19 $20 −$18 -90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $261 +$49 +19%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $700 +$34 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $750 +$276 +37%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $73 +$7 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $54 +$15 +28%
Will Senegal be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 17 $28 $0 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $162 +$38 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $2,464 −$536 -22%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 15 $124 −$88 -71%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $228 −$42 -18%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 15 $64 −$28 -44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $196 +$118 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $42 +$158 +376%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $24 +$6 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $22 +$8 +37%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Jun 14 $145 −$5 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $172 +$28 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $37 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $38 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $38 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 75¢ $76 7h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 9h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 9h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 9h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 16h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 16h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 16h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 37¢ $74 17h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 17h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kyoji Horiguchi 1¢ $1 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 62¢ $61 20h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 24h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 59¢ $41 24h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 24h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $97 25h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 25h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 25h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 25h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 25h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 25h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 25h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 25h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 27h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 27h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,528.13 · official $4,528.16 (match) · 3500 history records