Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2843…3439 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%28W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$438per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$24
other 20% −$237
crypto 13% +$2
tech 9% +$6
economics 7% +$1
world 0% $0
politics 0% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 -7.8% -16.6% 92% 0% -13.3%
all 30 +18.2% +7.0% 93% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.0% 3% -9.6%
10% -3.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -12.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -21.2% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$962) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$120 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses28 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage192d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $146 $147 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in May? Jun 01 $62 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $8.50 in May? Jun 01 $155 $0 +0%
Will Armenia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $216 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 27 $84 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 19 $82 +$2 +2%
Pistons vs. Pacers Apr 18 $82 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 10 $81 +$1 +2%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Apr 01 $972 +$9 +1%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Mar 31 $220 −$220 -100%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 31 $971 +$1 +0%
Spurs vs. Bucks Mar 29 $968 +$3 +0%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Mar 28 $967 +$1 +0%
Bucks vs. Clippers Mar 25 $965 +$2 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $964 +$1 +0%
Pistons vs. Heat Mar 09 $962 +$1 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Mar 07 $960 +$3 +0%
Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the top globa Mar 04 $959 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on February 26? Feb 28 $958 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $2.00? Feb 14 $957 +$1 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $26 +$190 +733%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 01 $171 +$5 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of January 12 above $235? Jan 17 $1,001 +$1 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 02 $51 $0 +0%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $150 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $167 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $510 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $146 1h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $62 31d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $8.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $155 31d
Will Armenia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 100¢ $216 45d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $84 63d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 98¢ $82 68d
Pistons vs. Pacers BUY Pistons 100¢ $82 73d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Thunder 98¢ $81 77d
Mavericks vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 99¢ $972 85d
Warriors vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $971 87d
Spurs vs. Bucks BUY Spurs 100¢ $968 88d
Jazz vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $967 89d
Bucks vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 100¢ $965 93d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $964 106d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 100¢ $842 108d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 100¢ $27 108d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 100¢ $8 108d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 100¢ $85 108d
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 100¢ $960 110d
Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the top globa BUY No 100¢ $959 115d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on February 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $958 119d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $2.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $957 133d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 52¢ $220 155d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua BUY Yes 97¢ $171 155d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 17¢ $21 155d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 155d
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of January 12 above $235? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,001 161d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $150 180d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $51 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.92 · official $216.92 (match) · 65 history records