Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x2842…e81b sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$404 (+21%) realized +$388 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%22W / 15L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$255
14 days+$255
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$290
other 10% +$83
world 4% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +19.0% +7.6% 67% 67% +10.3%
≤30d 30 +19.0% +7.6% 67% 67% +10.3%
≤90d 30 +19.0% +7.6% 67% 67% +10.3%
all 37 +9.6% -0.9% 59% 59% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 59% +13.1%
10% -10.4% 54% +2.3%
15% -19.0% 43% -7.6%
20% -27.0% 32% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$36 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$388
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage197d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Execration 49¢ 68¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +67%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $60 +$21 +34%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $20 +$21 +105%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $30 +$30 +99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $40 +$14 +36%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $31 −$12 -40%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 +$56 +276%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$18 +90%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $20 +$16 +79%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $51 +$28 +55%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $140 +$59 +42%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $71 −$70 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $70 +$11 +16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $32 −$32 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $41 −$27 -66%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$134 +263%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $70 −$67 -96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 +$35 +44%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$29 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $80 +$17 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $71 +$32 +45%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $68 +$23 +34%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $73 +$40 +56%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Dec 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 Winner Dec 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Nemesis (BO3) Dec 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Dec 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Tidebound - Game 2 Winner Dec 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Dec 10 $22 +$33 +150%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Dec 07 $200 +$269 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 49¢ $41 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $60 12h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 48¢ $20 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 95¢ $61 27h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $30 27h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $41 29h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 33h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 73¢ $40 35h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL OG 17¢ $18 42h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 27¢ $31 42h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $51 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner SELL Execration 86¢ $141 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 62¢ $140 2d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 74¢ $71 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $70 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $32 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $14 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 76¢ $50 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 94¢ $75 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 89¢ $16 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 26¢ $51 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $30 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.92 · official $55.92 (match) · 69 history records