Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:15:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2842…3895 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$5
other 40% $0
politics 5% +$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.7% -10.1% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 38% 0% -9.8%
all 41 -1.7% -11.1% 49% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 2% -10.0%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage460d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $59 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $29 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $95 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $80 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $29 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $24 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 28 $9 $0 +3%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? Jun 08 $2 $0 +16%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 22 $7 $0 +2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Liberal party lead by less than 4% on April 18? Apr 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $12 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 30 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $27 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $3 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $30 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $30 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $30 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $30 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $24 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.93 · official $29.93 (match) · 111 history records