Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x2842…fb48 sports 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$107 (+0%) realized +$204 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate63%150W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$334est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days+$771
14 days+$662
30 days+$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$149
other 4% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +40.0% +26.7% 86% 86% +12.8%
≤30d 97 +7.3% -2.9% 63% 62% -6.4%
≤90d 239 +1.8% -7.9% 63% 62% -8.3%
all 239 +1.8% -7.9% 63% 62% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 62% -8.3%
10% -16.7% 54% -17.1%
15% -24.8% 41% -25.1%
20% -32.1% 27% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$82 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$204
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses150 / 89
Est. fees paid−$334
Open positions2
Markets (closed)239 / 243
History coverage62d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Hijikata (-1.5) vs Jong (+1.5) Hijikata 62¢ 50¢ $108 $87 −$21 (-20%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 48¢ 14¢ $108 $33 −$75 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito Jun 29 $101 +$53 +52%
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Zakharova (+1.5) Jun 29 $121 +$55 +45%
Wimbledon ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 29 $79 +$35 +45%
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Jun 29 $88 +$60 +68%
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart Jun 29 $126 +$41 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $72 +$54 +75%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $49 +$23 +46%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 28 $133 −$133 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $250 −$247 -99%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $39 +$21 +56%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $83 −$82 -99%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $107 +$66 +62%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $118 +$59 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $262 +$59 +22%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $101 +$46 +46%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $51 +$68 +134%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen Jun 25 $101 +$53 +52%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $114 +$68 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $97 +$68 +70%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $111 +$82 +74%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 24 $141 +$71 +50%
Set Handicap: Mochizuki (-1.5) vs Onclin (+1.5) Jun 24 $101 +$42 +42%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 24 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $201 +$58 +29%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $52 +$40 +78%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $31 +$73 +232%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 23 $101 +$46 +46%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $94 +$39 +41%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $60 +$34 +57%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $58 −$57 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer Jun 22 $81 +$37 +46%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $44 +$37 +85%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $32 +$12 +37%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$71 -69%
Yannick Hanfmann vs. Adolfo Vallejo: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $67 +$36 +53%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $55 +$12 +22%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $149 −$148 -99%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $68 −$67 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $164 +$54 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 +$53 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 202 Jun 20 $68 +$41 +61%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $109 +$9 +8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 20 $75 −$14 -19%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $94 −$93 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $47 +$47 +101%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$35 -58%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $137 −$77 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $110 1h
Set Handicap: Hijikata (-1.5) vs Jong (+1.5) BUY Hijikata 62¢ $109 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito SELL Dayana Yastremska 100¢ $154 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito BUY Dayana Yastremska 65¢ $101 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Fabian Marozsan SELL Fabian Marozsan 95¢ $114 4h
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Zakharova (+1.5) BUY Muchova 68¢ $121 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie SELL Michael Zheng 93¢ $148 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Fabian Marozsan BUY Fabian Marozsan 65¢ $79 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 53¢ $61 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 58¢ $27 6h
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart SELL Jelena Ostapenko 100¢ $166 6h
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Jelena Ostapenko 75¢ $126 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 94¢ $126 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $72 27h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 68¢ $49 33h
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) SELL Humbert 0¢ $0 33h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $250 34h
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Humbert 51¢ $133 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $83 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $174 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $39 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $107 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $177 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $118 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 88¢ $321 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $262 3d
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 68¢ $101 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 42¢ $51 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 65¢ $101 4d
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Naomi Osaka 100¢ $183 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.41 · official $119.41 (match) · 453 history records