Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
28 0x2841…e4c0 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$50 (+7%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%16W / 19L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$374
7 days+$275
14 days+$343
30 days+$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$322
sports 36% +$44
crypto 15% −$50
world 4% −$30
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +313.9% +274.5% 50% 50% +56.8%
≤30d 8 +252.1% +218.5% 62% 62% +55.4%
≤90d 9 +212.9% +183.1% 56% 56% +51.9%
all 35 +35.3% +22.4% 46% 43% +24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.4% 43% +24.6%
10% +10.7% 43% +12.7%
15% -0.0% 37% +1.8%
20% -9.8% 31% -8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +75% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +92% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$12 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage272d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$237 +2305%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$137 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +116%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$33 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$34 +67%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $20 +$9 +43%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $20 +$12 +61%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 30 $20 +$13 +67%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 28 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 23 $5 −$4 -73%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Oct 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 10PM ET Sep 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 4PM ET Sep 26 $3 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 2PM ET Sep 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 10AM ET Sep 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 9AM ET Sep 26 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 8AM ET Sep 26 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 4PM ET Sep 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 5PM ET Sep 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 4PM ET Sep 24 $6 +$4 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 9AM ET Sep 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 19, 11AM ET Sep 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 19, 10AM ET Sep 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 19, 9AM ET Sep 19 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 10PM ET Sep 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9PM ET Sep 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 8PM ET Sep 19 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7PM ET Sep 19 $2 +$5 +244%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $247 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 51¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $22 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 78¢ $84 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $51 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 59¢ $51 9d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 82d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 0¢ $10 108d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 62¢ $20 226d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 26¢ $10 227d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 29¢ $10 229d
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 60¢ $20 234d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 70¢ $20 234d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL No 8¢ $1 237d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No 30¢ $5 239d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 239d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 264d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 264d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 2PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 264d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 264d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 264d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 9AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 264d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 8AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 264d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records