Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2840…7059 crypto 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,688 (+14%) realized +$1,688 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%78W / 61L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,043
7 days+$1,511
14 days+$1,945
30 days+$1,945
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$102
sports 36% +$1,398
other 22% +$733
world 5% −$244
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +24.9% +13.0% 77% 70% +6.5%
≤30d 35 +20.7% +9.2% 74% 69% +8.2%
≤90d 37 +15.3% +4.3% 70% 65% +7.6%
all 139 -9.1% -17.7% 56% 50% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 50% +4.4%
10% -25.6% 40% -5.6%
15% -32.8% 30% -14.7%
20% -39.4% 23% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$27 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,688
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses78 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage128d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $334 +$260 +78%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $183 +$117 +64%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $465 +$34 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $266 +$229 +86%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $214 +$182 +85%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $681 +$255 +37%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $207 −$78 -38%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $125 +$44 +35%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $577 +$123 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $222 −$220 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $140 −$50 -36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $140 +$155 +111%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $191 +$109 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $78 +$42 +54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $133 +$217 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $301 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $204 +$42 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,214 +$207 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $407 +$71 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $609 −$146 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $205 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $76 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $334 +$198 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $236 −$230 -97%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 10 $513 −$181 -35%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $172 −$172 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $555 +$366 +66%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $97 −$19 -20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $139 +$79 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $487 +$180 +37%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $49 −$48 -98%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 30 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $75 −$70 -94%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 27 $9 +$6 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Rockets vs. Magic Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Feb 27 $23 +$17 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Feb 27 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-26? Feb 27 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 26 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 26 $11 +$3 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $594 43m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $79 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $0 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 59¢ $98 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 93¢ $45 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 747 history records