Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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28 0x2837…e9fa sports 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$622 (+4%) realized +$723 · open −$101
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate31%61W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$193
7 days+$339
14 days+$344
30 days+$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$285
sports 25% −$476
crypto 2% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -17.9% -25.7% 67% 50% -0.1%
≤30d 13 +3.6% -6.3% 69% 62% +0.6%
≤90d 194 -25.0% -32.1% 31% 24% -9.7%
all 194 -25.0% -32.1% 31% 24% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 24% -9.7%
10% -38.6% 20% -18.3%
15% -44.5% 18% -26.2%
20% -50.0% 15% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$2,562
Realized+$723
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses61 / 133
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions7
Markets (closed)194 / 201
History coverage79d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $1,261 $1,238 −$24 (-2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $493 $474 −$19 (-4%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $437 $385 −$52 (-12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $320 $310 −$10 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $93 $107 +$13 (+14%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $44 $40 −$4 (-10%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 46¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $230 +$73 +32%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $280 +$120 +43%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $618 +$94 +15%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,117 +$54 +2%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +115%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $417 −$14 -3%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $61 +$33 +55%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $180 +$40 +22%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $132 +$33 +25%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $118 +$48 +41%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $612 +$14 +2%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5) Apr 29 $22 −$22 -99%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5) Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5) Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5) Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Real Oviedo (-1.5) Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Apr 15 $14 −$13 -99%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) Apr 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 15 $5 +$17 +344%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Apr 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Apr 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 11 $2 +$4 +161%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 11 $11 +$4 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard - Map 1 Winner Apr 11 $20 −$5 -22%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Apr 08 $16 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Apr 08 $17 −$2 -13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Apr 08 $14 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Sta Apr 08 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 08 $20 −$4 -20%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $19 −$3 -16%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 08 $13 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner Apr 08 $14 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Apr 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS - Map 1 Winner Apr 08 $16 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 07 $13 +$13 +104%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Apr 07 $20 +$5 +26%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Apr 07 $20 +$4 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $165 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $165 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $195 19h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 48¢ $85 20h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 48¢ $24 20h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $118 20h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 20h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 21h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 21h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 22h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 22h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 22h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 22h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 22h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 23h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 23h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $45 23h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $116 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $269 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $168 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $160 2d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 83¢ $249 2d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 2d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 82¢ $246 2d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 83¢ $415 2d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 84¢ $420 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $120 3d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 83¢ $415 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,561.89 · official $2,561.89 (match) · 1404 history records