Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2837…fd84 weather 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$44 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%18W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day52.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% −$262
other 15% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 25% -21.1%
≤30d 24 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 25% -21.1%
≤90d 24 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 25% -21.1%
all 24 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 25% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 25% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 12% -28.6%
15% -27.6% 0% -35.5%
20% -34.7% 0% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$64 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses18 / 6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 29
History coverage3d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day52.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $118 $122 +$3 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $118 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? No 90¢ 99¢ $81 $90 +$8 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 22? No 82¢ 94¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $94 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $204 −$144 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $187 −$135 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $93 −$37 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? Jun 22 $116 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $22 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $181 +$13 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $97 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $26 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $18 +$6 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $44 +$8 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $61 −$6 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 20? Jun 21 $114 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $143 −$60 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $102 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $95 +$31 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $234 +$15 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $126 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $118 18m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 19m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? SELL No $5 24m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 79¢ $20 27m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 76¢ $4 27m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 80¢ $33 28m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 30m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 75¢ $15 30m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $11 35m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 35m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 22¢ $7 37m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 37m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 36¢ $16 37m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 38m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 38m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 38m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 58¢ $18 40m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 57¢ $9 40m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 40m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 34¢ $17 40m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 48¢ $13 41m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 56¢ $6 41m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 47¢ $4 41m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 52¢ $7 41m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 42m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 42m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 82¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.32 · official $401.32 (match) · 160 history records