Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x282e…1f20 world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-7%) realized −$81 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,023now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$16
crypto 7% −$32
world 6% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 -23.7% -31.0% 17% 17% -53.8%
all 8 -17.6% -25.5% 25% 12% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 12% -48.0%
10% -32.6% 12% -52.9%
15% -39.1% 12% -57.5%
20% -45.1% 12% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$1,023
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage108d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,000 $1,022 +$22 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 02 $54 −$51 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 02 $15 +$39 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 01 $8 $0 +3%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 01 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $349 55m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $181 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $497 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $54 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 76d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $15 76d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 76d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 107d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 107d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL No 57¢ $1 107d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL No 57¢ $2 107d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 55¢ $3 107d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL No 56¢ $1 107d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL No 56¢ $2 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 107d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 107d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 53¢ $3 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 46¢ $2 107d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL No 44¢ $2 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 45¢ $0 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,022.86 · official $1,032.11 (match) · 39 history records