Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
28 0x282e…620d sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$167 (+5%) realized +$160 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$360
other 20% −$28
crypto 16% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -27.0% -33.9% 45% 36% +1.2%
≤30d 22 -27.0% -33.9% 45% 36% +1.2%
≤90d 22 -27.0% -33.9% 45% 36% +1.2%
all 22 -27.0% -33.9% 45% 36% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 36% +1.2%
10% -40.2% 27% -8.4%
15% -46.0% 23% -17.3%
20% -51.3% 14% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$13 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 72¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+54%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 28¢ $35 $15 −$20 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $521 +$9 +2%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $7 +$12 +172%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $404 +$117 +29%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$42 -83%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -74%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $35 −$24 -70%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $61 +$69 +112%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $25 −$16 -64%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$31 +62%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $381 +$50 +13%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $299 +$120 +40%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $352 +$75 +21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $481 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $530 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $521 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 3h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 85¢ $521 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $7 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $5 8h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $404 8h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes $9 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes $1 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 12h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 12h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $35 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 29h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 29h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 30h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 30h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 30h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $431 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 88¢ $381 35h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.01 · official $92.02 (match) · 46 history records