Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x282e…6d65 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$4
other 21% $0
politics 19% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
weather 3% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +18.4% +7.1% 100% 50% -1.5%
≤30d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 44% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 44% 6% -9.1%
all 45 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.6% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage304d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $44 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $13 +$5 +36%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $4 −$1 -29%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $93 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $47 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $8 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $7 $0 -6%
Will Ayo Edebiri win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Sep 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Sep 10 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on Sep Sep 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will SC Braga vs. Lincoln Red Imps FC end in a draw? Aug 28 $8 $0 -3%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 28 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 26 $26 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $2 $0 +5%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 24 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $46 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $46 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $46 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $46 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $47 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $46 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $47 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.84 · official $45.84 (match) · 134 history records