trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +11.8% | +1.2% | 100% | 50% | +2.1% |
| ≤30d | 17 | +150.4% | +126.6% | 65% | 41% | +1.1% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +125.4% | +103.9% | 67% | 48% | +1.3% |
| all | 21 | +125.4% | +103.9% | 67% | 48% | +1.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +103.9% | 48% | +1.3% |
| 10% | +84.4% | 24% | -8.4% |
| 15% | +66.6% | 14% | -17.2% |
| 20% | +50.3% | 10% | -25.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 86¢ | $3,001 | $3,017 | +$16 (+1%) |
| Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 96¢ | 78¢ | $328 | $267 | −$61 (-19%) |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 44¢ | 36¢ | $200 | $161 | −$39 (-20%) |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | Yes | 12¢ | 4¢ | $390 | $146 | −$244 (-63%) |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 99¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+18%) |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-83%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 24 | $3,474 | +$477 | +14% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 20 | $1,000 | +$99 | +10% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 17 | $243 | +$19 | +8% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? | Jun 17 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $2,803 | −$421 | -15% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential | Jun 13 | $14 | −$4 | -29% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 13 | $472 | +$78 | +17% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $1,669 | −$16 | -1% |
| Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? | Jun 07 | $113 | +$35 | +31% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 06 | $753 | +$101 | +13% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1,017 | +$221 | +22% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | May 28 | $50 | −$49 | -97% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? | May 28 | $10 | +$90 | +900% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 26 | $623 | +$62 | +10% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $506 | +$6 | +1% |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | May 25 | $100 | +$18 | +18% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | May 17 | $1 | $0 | +42% |
| Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | May 13 | $1 | $0 | -14% |
| US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | May 12 | $100 | +$14 | +14% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? | May 06 | $100 | +$35 | +35% |