Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
28 0x282c…ddea politics 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$531 (+24%) realized +$531 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%40W / 33L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$491
7 days+$491
14 days+$111
30 days+$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$242
tech 16% +$231
other 10% +$570
weather 7% −$20
politics 2% −$14
sports 1% −$13
crypto 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +479.4% +424.2% 50% 50% +396.7%
≤30d 12 +103.2% +83.8% 67% 67% +13.4%
≤90d 73 +14.5% +3.6% 55% 53% +12.7%
all 73 +14.5% +3.6% 55% 53% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 53% +12.7%
10% -6.3% 47% +1.9%
15% -15.4% 37% -7.9%
20% -23.7% 29% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$23 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$531
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses40 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage61d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $58 −$13 -23%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $51 +$504 +982%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $677 −$677 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $68 +$38 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $102 +$74 +72%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $202 +$77 +38%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $261 +$250 +96%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $182 +$90 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 17? May 17 $4 −$4 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $173 +$47 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 16? May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Trump say "Ancient" during Chinese State Banquet? May 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet? May 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Trump say "Temple" during Chinese State Banquet? May 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet? May 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "UFO" or "Alien" this week? May 11 $1 $0 +26%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "JD" or "Vance" this week? May 11 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Trump say "Regarded" this week? May 11 $1 $0 +39%
Will Trump say "Mob" or "Mafia" this week? May 11 $1 $0 +36%
Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week? May 11 $1 $0 +18%
Will Trump say "Daddy" this week? May 11 $1 $0 +22%
Will Trump say "Autopen" this week? May 11 $1 $0 +45%
Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week? May 10 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Tariff" this week? May 08 $1 $0 +26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $2 +$4 +223%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Court" this week? May 05 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Russia" this week? May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Vance" this week? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "AI" or "Intelligence" this week May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Congress" this week? May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump say "Wall Street" this week? May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 3? May 03 $2 +$3 +156%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 3? May 03 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3? May 03 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 3? May 03 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Powell say "Goods inflation" during April press conference? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 3? May 03 $3 −$2 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 2? May 02 $1 +$4 +367%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 2? May 02 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on May 1? May 02 $3 +$4 +126%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? May 01 $1 +$4 +354%
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? May 01 $2 +$2 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 24¢ $45 49m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $58 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $28 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $49 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $600 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $68 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 53¢ $68 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 9d
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No $10 18d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $51 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 38¢ $51 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 72¢ $202 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 57¢ $102 19d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? BUY No 10¢ $10 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $261 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $261 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $100 29d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $49 29d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 36d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 37d
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 39d
Will Trump say "Temple" during Chinese State Banquet? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 39d
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 39d
Will Trump say "Ancient" during Chinese State Banquet? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 39d
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 39d
Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 39d
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.79 · official $69.79 (match) · 149 history records