Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x282b…cc76 sports 265 markets active 4d ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$396 (-4%) realized −$396 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%136W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$356
14 days−$177
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$11
other 10% −$448
crypto 1% −$51
world 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -21.5% -29.0% 41% 41% -23.8%
≤30d 166 -8.1% -16.8% 49% 49% -12.6%
≤90d 265 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 51% -13.9%
all 265 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 51% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 51% -13.9%
10% -22.2% 48% -22.1%
15% -29.7% 46% -29.6%
20% -36.6% 39% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$34 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$396
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses136 / 129
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions0
Markets (closed)265 / 265
History coverage70d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 265 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$17 +114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $24 −$13 -53%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $30 +$31 +101%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $50 +$30 +59%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $41 −$41 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $15 +$15 +100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$15 +38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 +$26 +86%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $45 −$29 -64%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $109 +$71 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$3 -60%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $61 +$89 +145%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $50 +$14 +28%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $63 −$62 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $19 +$11 +60%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $17 +$6 +36%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $20 +$11 +52%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $31 +$41 +134%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $10 +$9 +86%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $56 −$45 -80%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$2 -8%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 −$2 -7%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$31 +101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$14 +70%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$27 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 51¢ $30 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $59 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $47 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 18¢ $11 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $15 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $15 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $9 4d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 46¢ $15 4d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 42¢ $10 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $15 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $15 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 100¢ $80 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $21 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $30 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 13¢ $2 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 13¢ $1 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 13¢ $1 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 13¢ $13 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 13¢ $2 4d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 100¢ $55 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $50 4d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 72¢ $40 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 53¢ $30 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 21¢ $16 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $21 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $1 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 55¢ $33 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 613 history records