Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x282b…f041
crypto · 494 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$364 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$360 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$360
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses236 / 257
Open positions1
Markets (closed)493 / 494
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1154.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 493 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$313
7 days−$360
14 days−$360
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 69¢ 74¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 68¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $44 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$16 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$15 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $41 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$18 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$7 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$364
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $18 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $13 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 493 +2.1% -7.6% 48% 41% -12.4%
≤30d 493 +2.1% -7.6% 48% 41% -12.4%
≤90d 493 +2.1% -7.6% 48% 41% -12.4%
all 493 +2.1% -7.6% 48% 41% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1154.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 41% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 36% -20.8%
15% -24.5% 28% -28.5%
20% -31.9% 20% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.15 · official $10.15 (match) · 3500 history records