Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x2829…338c
crypto · 18 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$45 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 57¢ 59¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $49 −$14 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $59 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$20 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$31 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$45 +427%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$19 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$45
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $7 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +5.6% -4.5% 41% 29% -19.6%
≤30d 17 +5.6% -4.5% 41% 29% -19.6%
≤90d 17 +5.6% -4.5% 41% 29% -19.6%
all 17 +5.6% -4.5% 41% 29% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 29% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 29% -27.3%
15% -22.0% 29% -34.3%
20% -29.6% 24% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.07 · official $2.07 (match) · 73 history records