Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x2829…63c9
other · 39 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage462d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 2 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 87¢ $37 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $9 −$2 -20%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -35%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $17 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $83 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 24 $5 $0 -10%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 23 $14 $0 +3%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 23 $4 $0 -1%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 22 $18 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 02 $5 $0 -0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $17 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $8 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 64-65°F on March 22? Mar 22 $10 $0 -4%
Will “The Residence: Season 1” be the top global Netflix show this wee Mar 21 $17 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $17 $0 -2%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 16 $17 $0 +0%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $16 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% −$2
other 35% +$4
politics 10% +$2
weather 4% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $37 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $2 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $5 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $9 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $50 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $2 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $13 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $32 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $34 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $3 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $36 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -6.4% -15.4% 22% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 12 -4.7% -13.8% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 12 -4.7% -13.8% 33% 0% -10.0%
all 37 -0.4% -9.9% 46% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 5% -9.1%
10% -18.5% 3% -17.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.82 · official $37.52 (match) · 105 history records