Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
28 0x2828…d265 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,184 (-37%) realized −$2,300 · open +$116
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$546
14 days+$302
30 days+$555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$1,881
sports 17% +$1,218
economics 17% −$998
other 11% −$134
politics 7% −$418
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +89.8% +71.7% 50% 50% +88.0%
≤30d 6 +64.6% +48.9% 50% 50% +43.5%
≤90d 8 +84.5% +66.9% 50% 50% +61.0%
all 13 +20.7% +9.2% 31% 31% -48.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.2% 31% -48.4%
10% -1.2% 31% -53.4%
15% -10.8% 31% -57.9%
20% -19.5% 31% -62.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -84% → late +111% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$391 vs −$432 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized−$2,300
Unrealized+$116
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage282d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $392 $508 +$116 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$398 +388%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $204 +$348 +171%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $247 −$244 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $197 +$254 +129%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $145 +$563 +388%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? May 10 $154 −$150 -97%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 14 $418 −$418 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Jan 13 $939 −$64 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 13 $877 −$877 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jan 07 $998 −$998 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 07 $940 −$940 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $198 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $102 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $102 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $552 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $247 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $197 20d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 20¢ $145 40d
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 40d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 156d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? BUY Yes 27¢ $377 157d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? SELL Yes $418 157d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $144 157d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? SELL Yes $144 157d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $215 157d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? SELL Yes $215 157d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $98 157d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $98 157d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes $421 162d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? BUY Yes $939 163d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $940 163d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 15¢ $998 282d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $507.58 · official $507.58 (match) · 33 history records