Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:54:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2828…91b8 crypto 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (264 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-5%) realized −$20 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day264.0pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$6
other 29% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (264 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +8.7% -1.6% 44% 44% -14.3%
≤30d 73 +8.7% -1.6% 44% 44% -14.3%
≤90d 73 +8.7% -1.6% 44% 44% -14.3%
all 73 +8.7% -1.6% 44% 44% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover264.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 44% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 44% -22.5%
15% -19.6% 44% -30.0%
20% -27.5% 38% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day264.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 46¢ 30¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$7 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +112%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -61%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -62%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +112%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +112%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -76%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -34%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -6%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -66%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +138%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -51%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -73%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +112%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -54%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -66%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -71%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -80%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +135%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +47%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +71%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -78%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -71%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -60%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -79%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 1m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $8 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 1m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $6 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 6m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 6m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 6m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 7m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 7m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 9m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 9m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 9m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 9m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $11 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.02 · official $16.90 (match) · 264 history records