Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x2827…fa58
world · 54 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$15 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage480d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 2 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 50¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 36¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $71 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $98 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $34 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $34 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $36 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $35 $0 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $37 $0 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $2 $0 -9%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $3 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Mar 31 $1 $0 -12%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 30 $35 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 29 $3 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Mar 27 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% −$1
other 21% $0
sports 12% −$13
politics 11% $0
economics 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $36 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $5 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $7 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $9 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $5 24h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $17 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $17 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $19 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $36 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $32 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $4 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $28 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $32 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $32 10d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $26 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 51 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 2% -9.6%
all 52 -2.3% -11.6% 35% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 2% -10.3%
10% -20.1% 2% -18.9%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.49 · official $35.35 · 213 history records