Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
28 0x2827…fb64 world 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 443d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$2
finance 14% −$4
politics 13% $0
other 12% $0
tech 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -3.3% -12.5% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 4 -3.3% -12.5% 25% 0% -10.6%
all 16 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

443d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage443d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $40 +$2 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $53 −$4 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 05 $22 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 03 $23 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Johni Broome win the Wooden Award? Apr 01 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $41 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $2 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $13 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $28 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $35 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $48 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $48 25d
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? SELL No 92¢ $5 358d
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? BUY No 90¢ $5 377d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY No 96¢ $2 380d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? BUY No 99¢ $2 420d
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? SELL No 99¢ $16 435d
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? SELL No 99¢ $7 435d
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? BUY No 99¢ $23 435d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 435d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? BUY No 97¢ $22 436d
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? SELL No 97¢ $22 436d
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? BUY No 97¢ $22 437d
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? SELL No 98¢ $13 437d
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? SELL No 98¢ $10 437d
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? BUY No 98¢ $22 438d
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 438d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.35 · official $42.31 (match) · 40 history records