Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x2825…4837
other · 38 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$3 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$9
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage456d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 1 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $44 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $53 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -9%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 21 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23? May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Fight or Flight' gross more than $1.5m opening weekend? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 10 $1 $0 -12%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 07 $17 $0 -1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $4 $0 -4%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? May 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $15 +$1 +6%
Will another racer win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his DOJ appearance on Frid Mar 15 $13 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% +$2
world 32% −$1
crypto 10% +$1
politics 7% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $11 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $32 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $44 9h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $12 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $24 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $21 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $51 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $51 4d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 177d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? SELL No 99¢ $15 352d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 373d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? BUY No 99¢ $15 387d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.8%
all 37 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.98 · official $8.98 (match) · 117 history records