Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
28 0x2824…4aac sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$5,367 (+11%) realized +$5,367 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,804per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$487est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$2,457
other 29% +$4,483
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +60.2% +44.9% 50% 46% -5.6%
≤30d 26 +60.2% +44.9% 50% 46% -5.6%
≤90d 26 +60.2% +44.9% 50% 46% -5.6%
all 26 +60.2% +44.9% 50% 46% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.9% 46% -5.6%
10% +31.1% 46% -14.6%
15% +18.4% 46% -22.9%
20% +6.8% 42% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$2,535) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +137% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,815 vs −$1,659 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,367
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$487
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage7d
Avg bet$1,804
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,535 +$2,182 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5,032 −$5,000 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,028 +$973 +48%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $615 −$600 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $7,613 +$436 +6%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,028 +$2,397 +233%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,436 +$1,795 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5,062 −$5,000 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $512 −$500 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $914 −$900 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,235 +$1,765 +55%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $715 −$715 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1,390 −$1,390 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,531 −$1,531 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $4,008 −$4,008 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $205 +$1,824 +888%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $510 +$919 +180%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,145 +$5,097 +238%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $815 +$1,376 +169%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $611 +$1,010 +165%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $509 +$760 +149%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $513 +$3,059 +596%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $5,032 44m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,535 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $3,001 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,028 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $510 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $615 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $7,613 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3,424 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $1,028 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $3,436 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5,062 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 18¢ $512 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $914 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $3,235 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $307 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,531 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 35¢ $510 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2,145 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4,008 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 31¢ $1,390 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 29¢ $715 4d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,191 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $611 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,269 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 5d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 36¢ $815 6d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records